Thicc Stauskas' Big Ten Position Rankings: Quarterback, Part Two
Thicc Stauskas' Big Ten Position Rankings: Quarterback, Part Two
Remember: You're not allowed to get mad.
If you missed it last week, here’s part one, which includes the methodology and bottom half of the conference.
The Chart for Reference:
Let’s get to it.
7. Sean Clifford, Penn State
Sean Clifford is a hero. This man is playing QB behind what is effectively one of those beads that people would hang in open doorways in the 80s. Yeah, it’s a little annoying to have to walk through, but it’s certainly not hard.
Clifford isn’t very effective on standard downs, but he is keeping this offense on life support by converting 41% of passing downs despite taking a crushing shot to his ribcage on at least half of those. He doesn’t generate much explosion, but he also avoids throwing picks and is a dangerous running threat, scrambling for 352 yards at 9 yards a pop.
Why are the stats the way they are?
Penn State is better when they are letting Sean Clifford cook. Trying to run normal offense on standard downs behind that offensive line is a fool’s errand. I don’t think OC Mike Yurcich is anything special, but I also don’t know what he’s supposed to do without a functional front. Sean Clifford isn’t the most accurate, but he is tough, and he does make plays when the chips are down.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
Penn State did sign the number one overall QB in the class of 2022 in Drew Allar, so the ceiling, if he is an immediate hit, is the roof. I think a likely situation for this year looks like Michigan in 2021 with Clifford and Allar splitting time, but Clifford getting the lion’s share of snaps. We will see if it works as well as it did for Michigan last year. Penn State could climb as high as #3 or fall as low as #9. A lot of this hinges on if the OL is a gaping black hole that swallows the entire offense, or if it is merely bad.
6. Cade McNamara, Michigan
It’s not so much about what Cade McNamara does, but about what he doesn’t. He doesn’t create big plays, but he does throw for almost 8 YPA. He doesn’t have great efficiency, but he does complete almost 65% of his passes. He doesn’t throw a lot of touchdowns, but he doesn’t throw picks either. Not being great at anything is fine if you also aren’t bad at anything. In the B1G, that will take you a long way, all the way to the playoff even.
Why are the stats the way they are?
Michigan likes to run the ball, even on passing downs. Michigan’s offense is split up into two parts, there is the heavy power run game with RPOs attached, and play action off it, and there is a west coast passing offense that they break out when they have to. Cade doesn’t get a ton of opportunities to create big plays, but he does a reasonable job converting when Michigan needs him to keep the drive moving. He also has mastered the art of the checkdown. Nobody dumps the ball to their running back like Cade McNamara. It is his favorite thing to do, and it usually keeps Michigan ahead of the chains.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
The main reason that Michigan is ahead of Penn State is that their five star QB may just be fully operational this season. JJ McCarthy isn’t on this list, but he showed real flashes of being an early round draft pick level talent and is a legitimately dynamic running threat. Cade is a great floor to have, and with JJ pushing from behind, Michigan could rise as high as #2. I couldn’t see them falling below 7th.
5. Payton Thorne, Michigan State
I was really hoping to manufacture a way to have Cade above Thorne in these rankings. This is terrible for My Agenda. But alas, Payton Thorne is a little more efficient, a lot more explosive, and a far better runner than Cade McNamara. Thorne throws a great deep ball, generating 25+ yard plays on almost 10% of his passes, and 15+ on almost 20%. Thus far, Jay Johnson’s offense has been more focused on big plays than sustaining long drives, and Thorne is a great fit for what he’s trying to do.
Why are the stats the way they are?
When Thorne is throwing the ball downfield to Jayden Reed or the recently drafted Jalen Nailor, he is confident, accurate, and on time. When he is asked to work the intermediate game, he is a bit shaky. While he threw for 8.3 yards per attempt which is what matters most, just 60% overall completion belies some accuracy issues. Nevertheless, Thorne’s overall efficiency numbers are above average, so it’s not like he was truly boom or bust like Tanner Morgan.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
MSU signed Katin Houser, who flew up the rankings his entire senior year. But, he also split time in a loaded high school program, so he likely won’t be ready to start right out of the gate. MSU’s hopes at the position likely ride or die with Payton Thorne this season, which is not a bad place to be. Thorne improved a lot from the guy who couldn’t beat out Rocky Lombardi, and there’s no reason to think he can’t get even better in his second year starting. The ceiling is probably 2nd with the floor being 7th. That’s likely the case for the next few teams as well, since I don’t see a ton of separation in this section of the rankings.
4. Casey Thompson, Nebraska
At number four, Casey Thompson is our highest ranked transfer on this list. You may already be laughing at me for putting any Nebraska player this high, but at least hear me out.
Imagine that your favorite school (that is not Nebraska) was taking in a transfer from a blue blood program who threw for over 8 YPA and ran for over 12 YPC on decent volume. You would probably wonder why he was transferring in the first place. Now imagine that the only reason he is transferring away is that he was forced out by one of the best QB recruits of the past five years. Your worries would likely be ameliorated.
At the end of the day, the only reason people are going to laugh at him being this high is that he plays for Nebraska, which is the newest r/cfb meme that people who can’t think of their own jokes are repeating ad nauseum. Casey Thompson is a good quarterback that will probably find a way to lose some very funny games.
Why are the stats the way they are?
Thompson is a cool customer that operated well in Steve Sarkisian’s heavy play action and Bama-style RPO offense. He has the post-snap read chops to make the transition to Scott Frost’s option heavy attack.
He’s decisive, accurate, and gives his receivers chances to Make Plays downfield. A lot of the interceptions I watched were due to him having too much trust in his playmakers and his pre-snap reads. These interceptions were the only real downside of his game at Texas (5.5% int rate). Otherwise, he was efficient, created explosive plays in the air and on the ground, and worked through his reads quickly when he needed to. I really came away impressed with Thompson’s game.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
If Thompson can keep up or improve upon his production at Nebraska, I could see him rising to 2nd or 3rd. However, it’s fair to say that Thompson will be working with less talent overall than he was at Texas. He will not have Xavier Worthy or Bijan Robinson creating buckets of YAC. Also, despite the improvements that the Big 12 has made on defense in recent years, the talent on that side of the ball in the B1G is still a step up. Thompson could struggle with the transition and fall as far as #6 or #7.
3. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Stop yelling at me. Taulia does not have That Dog in him. I will start there. Ace is likely going to put an editor’s note in here about his split between good defenses and bad defenses. [Ed-Ace: A whole dang chart, even:
Sorry. Carry on, my friend.]
I don’t care. Most defenses are bad, and he did very well against them. Every one of these quarterbacks got to play against bad defenses and they didn’t do as well as Taulia. Whatever. Please stop yelling at me.
Now on to talking about Taulia. He was lethal on standard downs with a 56% success rate, created 15+ yard plays on 18% of his throws, didn’t throw a lot picks (contrary to popular belief), generated over 8 YPA, and was an efficient runner at almost 7 YPC. It is not his fault that he plays for the most unserious program in the B1G East.
Why are the stats the way they are?
Taulia is a plus athlete that uses his athleticism in the run game and to extend passing plays. He is well-versed in Bama’s RPO attack, spending a year in Tuscaloosa and now playing for a former Saban OC. His post snap read proficiency really shows up in his 56% standard down success rate, which is second best in the conference. On passing downs, he comes back down to earth, falling just below 40%. To take the next step as a passer, he needs to be better when he is called upon to keep drives moving on third down.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
Taulia had a good statistical year last year, which is why he is this high on the list. The next step for him is to be more consistent against the better defenses on the schedule. If he can do that and get better on passing downs, he can move up a spot to number 2. I will concede, however, that he is definitely on Fraud Watch, and as such, could easily fall to #6 or #7 because I am never right.
2. Aidan O’Connell, Purdue
Aidan O’Connell is a Low-Key Problem. He was extremely efficient on standard downs at 55% and was the only non-CJ Stroud QB to eclipse a 50% passing down success rate. He generated a lot of explosive plays, didn’t throw a lot of picks, completed 72% of his passes overall, and had the highest YPA of anyone in the conference that didn’t play for Ohio State.
Sure, a lot of this is probably due to David Bell being a dominant force at receiver, but David Bell was often hurt, and other teams have good players too. You can’t evaluate any position in a vacuum in football. It’s a team game and there are a lot of QBs that wouldn’t do as much as O’Connell did with a receiver like Bell.
Why are the stats the way they are?
Jeff Brohm has figured out that if you can simply have a coherent passing attack in the B1G west, every non-Wisconsin defense will completely short circuit. These defenses are neither used to seeing, nor built to stop a legitimate passing offense. It took Purdue a while to find their guy, but Aidan O’Connell really came on down the stretch and had some of his best performances against the best teams they played.
I say all that to say that O’Connell plays in a very QB-Friendly offense, which is part of the reason for his gaudy stats. The other part is that O’Connell is simply a very accurate passer. He has a wonky delivery, and arm strength that belies his former walk-on status, but he simply puts the ball where it needs to be. He also does a great job working the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. Many times last season he delivered a dime one split second before taking a sack. He will remind Michigan fans of Wilton Speight after he started heating up and before he got hurt at Iowa in 2016. Take that version of Wilton Speight, spread it out over a whole season, and you’re cooking with gas.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
Unfortunately, there is nowhere to go but down for Purdue. As good as O’Connell is, I don’t see him surpassing CJ Stroud. And considering Purdue lost David Bell to the NFL and Milton Wright to academic ineligibility, there could certainly be some regression even if O’Connell is the exact same guy. However, I don’t see him falling further than 4th or 5th even in the worst-case scenario.
1. CJ Stroud, Ohio State
Okay, fun’s over. We have to talk about Ohio State now. It is true that CJ Stroud is in perhaps the best QB situation in the history of college football. He was throwing to three future first round receivers and protected by one of the best offensive lines in the country. Any QB in the league would likely have some level of success in this offense, but not every QB would do what CJ Stroud did.
A 59% standard down success rate is incredible, but get this, he also had a 60%(!) passing down success rate. Think about that for a second. If by some act of God, you can get Ohio State in third and long, they are going to convert 6 times out of 10 anyway. That is so depressing.
72% completion percentage. 44 TDs to 6 interceptions for a 7.33 TD/Int ratio. For reference, the next closest TD/Int ratio was Payton Thorne at 2.7. Interceptions on less than 2% of his throws. The next closest was Art Sitkowski (lol) at almost 3%. Over 10 YPA. The next closest was Aidan O’Connell at 8.44.
CJ Stroud isn’t just adequately operating the Ohio State death machine, he is masterfully leading it to previously unimaginable heights. Last year’s Ohio State offense was the greatest in the history of most advanced analytics, and you can’t have that without an elite quarterback. Too bad they had to play in a light flurry.
Why are the stats the way they are?
CJ Stroud’s ball placement is elite, even if he usually doesn’t need it to be. Most of the time, Garrett Wilson, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, or Chris Olave are running wide open in the secondary, and all he has to do is put it within 5 yards of them. He usually does them one better by hitting his receiver perfectly in stride anyway. But, when he does need to be accurate, he almost always is. The only downside to his game is that he has a tendency to fade away from pressure, which he rarely gets.
CJ Stroud may have all the advantages, but the numbers don’t lie. Even if we chopped off a full yard of YPA, added 5 interceptions, cut his yards by 10%, and dropped his success rates by 5% each, he would still be the best QB in the conference by a wide margin. There is no competition here.
Are there reasons for optimism/pessimism and how high could they climb/fall?
If Stroud can replicate his success from last year and lead Ohio State to the playoff, he will win the Heisman. I genuinely cannot see a universe where he finishes the season healthy and is not named First Team All B1G and Offensive Player of the Year in the conference. The only variance here is whether he is a Heisman Winner/first overall pick, or Heisman Finalist/top 10 pick. That may seem trivial, but for Ohio State it could be the difference between a B1G Title and a National Title.
I think you should add a HTDIT (has that dog in them) column to the spreadsheets, even if it doesn't impact the ratings