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Two Wins Away From History

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Two Wins Away From History

What are the keys to Michigan closing out a Big Ten title run against Michigan State and Iowa? With or without Leigha Brown, the backcourt is the focus.

Ace Anbender
Feb 23, 2022
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Two Wins Away From History

www.thebucketproblem.com
Can Michigan remain above the competition? [Photo: JD Scott/MGoBlog]

Michigan is two wins away from their first Big Ten title in women’s basketball.

A regular season championship wouldn’t just make history for the program; it’d mark a shift of power in the conference. Either Maryland or Ohio State has at least shared the Big Ten title every year since 2014, when the Terrapins joined the conference. Among the other 12 schools, only Northwestern (tied with MD in 2020) earned a piece of a title in that period.

Michigan is 4-0 against the two conference giants and lead the Big Ten by a game in the loss column. They control their own destiny — beat Michigan State and Iowa and they put up a banner.

Twitter avatar for @wcrosher
Wyatt Crosher @wcrosher
The odds after Iowa's win over Indiana: Michigan - 42.8% Ohio State - 34.8% Iowa - 22% Maryland - 0.3% Indiana - 0.1% It's down to three teams unless some real shenanigans happen (sorry for bad math earlier @BucketProblem)
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3:20 AM ∙ Feb 22, 2022
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Assuming Iowa doesn’t lose their next game to an abject Rutgers squad, Michigan has a path to sharing the title with a loss, albeit a narrow one:

  • Lose to Michigan State, beat Iowa, otherwise the Hawkeyes will pass the Wolverines

  • Ohio State loses at least one of their final two games (PSU, MSU)

As the championship odds Wyatt Crosher posted imply, Michigan has a difficult final two games of the regular season. Michigan State is an inconsistent bubble team that’s capable of beating, well, Michigan, which they did two weeks ago in East Lansing. Iowa is coming off back-to-back wins over Indiana and they have two starters back who weren’t available in the first matchup with the Wolverines.

Win probabilities via Her Hoop Stats.

Michigan’s #2 scorer and best playmaker, Leigha Brown, remains “day-to-day” with a lower-leg injury suffered over three weeks ago. If she returns this week, it may not be at 100%. Let’s look ahead at how the Wolverines can navigate these two games and come away with a banner.

The Bucket Problem
WBB: A Cruel Twist
In a crowded Big Ten championship race, one misstep could determine whether Michigan will raise a banner. Unfortunately, a literal misstep has already cost the Wolverines their advantage on the rest of the field. With two minutes left in Michigan’s triumph over fellow contender Indiana on January 31st, Brown connected on a floater to ice the game, turned to run back on defense, and appeared to step on an IU player’s foot…
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a year ago · 1 like · Ace Anbender

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